The Tentative Hypothesis in a General Research Question

Excerpts from the Paper

The Tentative Hypothesis in a General Research Question
Research Design Outline
The general research question is: How likely is Iran to develop a viable thermonuclear program within the next decade? There is no specific research question.
The theoretical approach to be used is qualitative, with the specific research strategy being a matched comparison. The tentative hypothesis is that Iran is more likely than otherwise to develop a viable thermonuclear program within the next decade.
Matched comparison is a research method in which a subject is compared with a control group. Typically, in such a study, the subject is exposed to a form of stimulus to which the control group is not observed. Thus, a matched study could be used to determine...

.....ance without a framework that cannot convey predictive reliability. However, just because geopolitical questions do not submit to quantitative research, it does not follow that one should not attempt to answer by via qualitative means (as long as the limitations and biases of such means are properly noted). The matched comparison method attempt to ground predictions about Iran’s nuclear program in precedent and evidence already provided by Pakistan; employing this method to evaluate the likelihood of Iranian weaponization is, at least,
superior to guesswork, and brings some quantum of rigor to a question of the greatest geopolitical importance.
References
Hill, G. (2001). A level psychology through diagrams. Oxford: Oxford University Press.