The Prognosis for Democratic Change in China Introduction Bruce Gilley, in his prognosis of democratic change in China, is optimistic in his analysis. Gilley argues that the “laws of social science grind away in China as they do elsewhere, whether people like it or not” and that in the years since the crushing of the Tiananmen Movement in 1989 the “balance has shifted decisively against the regime’s ability to survive” (Gilley 2004, xi-xiii). This paper will critically examine Gilley’s prediction, with reference to scholarly works on both China and the processes of democratization in China’s neighbours, Korea and Japan. The thesis will be argued that given how economic development occurred in disconnection from democratic change in both...The end:
..... that Gilley’s thesis with respect to the future of democratic change in China will come to pass in the immediate future. Bibliography Czinkota, Michael and Masaaki Kotaba. 2000. Japanese Distribution Strategy. London: Thomson. Fuller, Graham. 1995. The next ideology. Foreign Policy 98: 145- 154. Gilley, Bruce. 2004. China’s democratic future: How it will happen and where will it lead. New York: Columbia University Press. Huang, Yasheng. 1995. Why China will not collapse. Foreign Policy 99: 54-62. Lieberthal, Kenneth. 2004. Governing China: From revolution through reform. New York: W.W. Norton. Peerenboom, Randall. 2007. China Modernizes. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Saich, Tony. 2001. Governance and politics in China. London: Palgrave.